Monday, 29 July 2013

Trader's Diary 29/7/13

By Smoking Gun

Bought 100,000 shares of Hi-P on 28/7/13 at 0.805. No other positions added or exited during this period. All in all relatively good day for the portfolio. Net cash invested still remains at 49% of portfolio.

Disclaimer: This is a mock portfolio and all trades referred in the the context of this mock portfolio are purely hypothetical based on actual prices observed during actual trading. This mock portfolio only serves merely to demonstrate the methods in my stock picking and trading strategy and does not represent a solicitation or recommendation to buy and sell any security or financial instrument. The author and/or interested parties may have positions in the stocks mentioned. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The ideas expressed are solely my opinions. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Rationale for  investing in Hi-P as explained by the narrative below;

Sunday, 28 July 2013

Book Review: Bailout by Neil Barofsky

I recently finished reading Neil Barofsky’s book Bailout. This is the autobiographical tale of how a prosecutor from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in New York City ends up monitoring the spending of the greatest private sector bailout this country has ever seen -- that of the giant Wall Street banks that started in 2008.

I almost didn’t buy this book. By now, I’ve read so much (books, magazine articles, blog posts) about the financial crisis, that I feel like my cynical carapace has grown a cynical carapace. But I liked the idea of getting a fresh perspective, and I’ve enjoyed some of Barofsky’s commentary on the Internet.

So, in slideshow deck fashion (without the actual annoying slideshow deck), here are six impressions of Bailout and its message.

1. Geez, was Barofsky really that naive?

He often comes across as a bit too earnest and wide-eyed and incredulous, like he’s starring in the regulatory version of “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.” Or maybe, again: I’ve just gotten really, really cynical.

2. Surprise! Politicians are the good guys, more often than not. Indignant senators and congressmen help a frustrated Barofsky by giving captured regulators and play-it-safe bureaucrats a good swift rump kick from time to time.

Maybe it shouldn’t come as a surprise -- Congress created Barofsky’s office, after all. Still, in an age when regard for Congress hovers between that for a dung beetle and parasitical tapeworm, the revelations are pleasantly dissonant.

3. HAMP (the Home Affordable Modification Program) was an ill-conceived mess from the get go. Strangely, the main flaw was obvious to everyone except apparently the program’s creators. Mike Konczal at Rortybomb, for example, blogged about it several times, such as here.

In brief: Treasury put the mortgage servicers in charge of the program. The incentives of the servicers were at odds with HAMP’s goals. So the program was more or less designed to do a face plant.

4. Funny but sad epiphanies: Barofsky has a great “Hey, wait a minute” moment when then Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talks about HAMP. Geithner seems rather pleased with the program’s poor performance, saying it has “foamed the runway.”

It “foamed the runway” so the plane won’t crash. But who’s onboard the metaphorical plane? Barofsky realizes it’s not millions of homeowners with underwater mortgages. Rather, it’s the Wall Street banks. HAMP “foamed the runway” and gave the banks some breathing room to deal with their bad housing investments.

5. The term “moral hazard” was invoked in a curiously inconsistent way.

The suggestion to help homeowners with their underwater mortgages prompted officials at the Treasury Department to fret about moral hazard. However that same suggestion, applied to the big banks with regard to shoring up their tattered balance sheets, elicited the exact opposite response. When it came to the Wall Street banks, Treasury couldn’t seem to get the bags of cash out the door fast enough. In fact, the crowning irony was that Treasury hesitated to put conditions on the banks related to the funds they received, for fear they wouldn’t accept the money. Meanwhile, homeownevers had to jump through all kinds of hoops just to get trial mortgage modifications.

6. And then there were a few surprises to stir outrage.

The rationale for the bonuses paid to AIG executives -- because they were the only ones who could unwind the complex credit-default swap trades -- is revealed as a farce. A $7,700 payment went to a kitchen assistant and $7,000 landed in the pocket of a mailroom assistant -- both of whom presumably knew as much about default swaps as they did about quantum electrodynamics. Just something else to make the blood boil.

So: My final assessment of Bailout is that it's definitely a good read. It will leave you frustrated and mad (yet again). Much of the terrain is familiar. But I think as citizens we need to keep a high awareness of the many things that went wrong, leading up to the financial crisis and in our response to it.

Friday, 26 July 2013

Fran Capo Hopeville The City of Light

The Fantastic Fran Capo!
This week my Celebrity friend the fabulous Fran Capo is back at Celebrity English with a fantastic new book that will change your life for the better! 

Fran Capo's Hopeville "The City of Light" is out!  This is one 5 STAR BOOK you don't want to miss!   Just wait until you find out how this book came to life, "Literally"!  

"Hopeville: The City of Light" 

Alex Graham:  Fran Capo has a fantastic new book out called "Hopeville: The City of Light".  Fran can you tell us a bit about Hopeville. 

Fran Capo:  Hopeville is a very simple story about 4 people, a mother, a little boy, and old man and a successful business man who one night all pray for the same thing. They are having a tough time in lives at the moment and are praying for help. An Angel of light comes to all of them with the same message and they are each asked to carry out their part. Each of thinks they are not capable of such a big task but in the end they all do it in their own way. The efforts of each person (no matter how small it may seem at the time) transforms the energy of the whole small town they live in.
It's a story of hope, love, inspiration, never giving up and following your dream and living life to the fullest. It shows how what one person does has a ripple effect on a whole community and can make people come together and re-evaluate and realize the important things in life.

Fran you have authored quite a few books on a variety of topics and genres such as "It Happened in New York", "Adrenaline Adventures: Dream it, Read it, Do it!", "Almost a Wise Guy", "Humor in Business Speaking and How to Break into Voice Overs" and more!

These are all excellent books, but as I understand Hopeville is very very special.  Can you elaborate on that?

"Hopeville is the ONLY book that I did not plan to write."

I had not even the slightest thought about the book and then one morning at 4 a.m. I was awoken by a voice telling me I had to write this book. I actually thought I was dreaming and arguing with the voice. But the voice (and I could not tell if it was male or female, was very persistent.) It insisted I get up and write the name of the book down. So at 4 a.m. I got up, turned on the light write the name down and then went back to sleep. But it did not stop there. I was in the middle of writing my book, Adrenaline adventures and was on  deadline, and I have never had writers block, that was the only day in my ENTIRE writing career that I couldn't write what I planned to do. So then I opened up a new document and typed the title: Hopeville the City of light. For the next three hours, I don't remember what happened. I just typed. When it was done, I had no idea what I had written or even if it made sense. 

"Months later I read it and realized it had a great message and story and that it was a gift given to me to spread this message from above. So now hopefully it will happen."

  Also Monday, July 29th is your Birthday!  Congratulations!  

What is your special birthday wish this year? How can we make your wish come true?

Fran:  I've written 18 books, and while they have been successful and many of them have gone into 2nd edition (which is great for a book) none of them have been viral or best sellers. It is my dream to have this book be the book to go to best seller status on amazon. That can happen if everyone who is interested buys it ON THE SAME DAY.
A book doesn't become a best seller by how many are sold overall, but by how many are sold in one day. 

I'm am asking if anyone in your Celebrity English audience is interested in buying it that they do it on Sat. July 27 and if for some reason they  miss that date that they do it  on my real birthday Monday. July 29th. 


Alex:   Absolutely!!!!  I will be there buying on Monday July 29th to make your birthday wish come true.  And to all my Celebrity English friends, please help me to make this amazing lady's wish come true!   And Of course, for those of you reading this article now and missed the birthday wish, please by this great book now! We can create a stellar birthday year for Fran Capo and her book Hopeville! 

Let's 'pay it forward'! Just click on the link above and let Amazon do its magic!  
Less than a coffee and done in under 2 minutes! 

Alex:  By the way, that was a 'nugget of gold' about Amazon and selling books, Fran as a professional author, writer and columnist, what other advice would you give to authors just starting out?

Fran:  Write about topics you love and interest you. Write every day. Don't just sit in front of your computer staring at it, if you can't decide what to write, write anything to get the creative juices flowing. My method is I just free style write. Then I wait a day, go back in and fix it up. Then I go back in again and add the humor. 

"Start by writing articles, then work you're way up to a book."

It's easier that way so you have a track record of things you have published. To be considered a  professional you need to have gotten paid for your work. So pick a copy or go on line and order a copy of Writers Market and find out who is buying the type of stories you want to sell.
Also, blog and build up a fan base.

Alex:  Excellent advice! Fran Capo always makes me smile and laugh in amazement with that Guinness Book of World Records voice! Here is Fran Capo 'speed talking' the first pagefrom her book "Hopeville", really really fast! Like only Fran Capo can do!

Thank you very much Fran Capo! 
That was excellent!   In case you didn't catch all that the first, second, or third time, here is the first page from Hopeville The City of Light

Everyone in Hopeville was born with a candle. It was not just an ordinary candle but a candle filled with magic. The candle was lit from the day you were born and went out on the day that you died.  The candle was an external measure of life. Everyone could see how bright it shined.
        Hopeville wasn’t always a town of light. In fact, it wasn’t always named Hopeville. Long ago it was just an ordinary town, filled with ordinary people living ordinary lives. Back then the town was called Acceptanceville. It was a place filled with all the human emotions: love, hate, joy, sorrow, happiness, fear, jealousy, and mistrust. Unfortunately, as time went on mistrust overtook the town. Those good souls who worked hard and tried to bring joy and happiness were shot down.
        Then one night, a small boy, a widowed mother, a successful businessman, and an old man kneeled by their beds and prayed. Their prayers were all the same, “Dear heavens up above, I am trying my best. I work hard each day, try to be good to my friends, and yet I am not happy. It seems I have lost faith. I can’t tell those who are good from those who are bad. I am lost, and I need some kind of light to help me find the way.”
        An angel of light appeared to each of them that night. “Your prayers have been heard and answered. You are not alone. From this day forth everyone in this town and everyone born in this village shall have a candle. The candle will reflect the person’s inner soul. If it is burning brightly you will know this is a person of kindness and happiness and you can trust this person. If the candle has a dark red hue, you will know that person is hiding something. You will know this is a person’s whose heart has been turned away from the true light, and you will know to keep away from this person, or at least to be careful when talking with this person so he does not lead you down the wrong path.”

And if that wasn't enough to get you to buy her book on Saturday or Monday - JULY 29th, then maybe these fantastic testimonials will! And if you don't have a Kindle No Problem! Out of the country No Problem!
#Screenshot - I bought Fran's book using Kindle Cloud. Excellent and Easy!

Testimonials for Hopeville


Hopeville is the next Alchemist! It shows that no matter who you are or where you are in life you can light up another person's life and in the process transform your own.  And, trust me, transformation is what it’s all about.  This book is a must have for anyone looking to brighten their lives.

Janette Barber

6 Time Emmy Award Winner, Best Selling Author, Sirius-XM Radio Host.


As a forth stage cancer survivor I learned how precious life is. I practice everyday the art of gratitude and giving with my Comedy Cures Foundation. This book teaches you through parable how to give, how to love, how to follow your dreams. It's a simple beautiful book that was given to Fran from above. I hope the world embraces it. I love it.

Saranne Rothberg

Forth stage cancer survivor, CEO of Comedy Cures Foundation



I enjoyed "Hopeville: The City of Light" immensely.  First this wonderful and talented author, Fran Capo, peaks your interest
with great stories illustrating the "the light" which can shine in all of our lives; then she caps off these inspiring accounts with a "how to" guide containing simple but very effective ways for infusing you life with the warmth of this magical light.  Once you read this book you will never forget it!  You'll take the light with you wherever you go!  Thank you Fran!

Ted Isaacson, Master Gunnery Sergeant, United States Marine Corps, Retired


I’ve been following a spiritual path and meditating for more than 30 years, and I want to thank you because after reading Hopeville, I felt
so inspired and so full of joy. It made me want to live in my heart,
connect with the Divine who lives within us all, brighten my inner flame and go out and do good things for people.  And that was after reading just the first chapter!  Your story is a brilliant reminder
that true happiness comes from within and that we all belong to one big family. I pray that millions of others in our world family will read your book so they can get the same inspiration that I did.

In gratitude

Ashrita Furman

Holder of the most Guinness World Records – 444 official Guinness Records

More About Fran Capo!
More about Fran Capo

Fran Capo is a keynote motivational speaker, 18 time author, comedienne, TV show host, spokesperson, adventurer and six time world record holder, most known as the Guinness Book of World Records fastest talking female. She has appeared on over 350 television and 4500 radio shows worldwide including; Entertainment Tonight, Fox & Friends, The Late Show, Martha Stewart, Larry King Live and the Discovery Channel and a whole lot more! Check out Fran Capo's website for a great Great Adventures, inspiration, and a great Cuppa Capo! 

Celebrity English_Alex Graham

Connect with ALEX here or at
 Always love to meet new people!

Celebrity English International
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Eject! Eject! Acquire new drummer!

Hey Eject! Eject! Fans, as you all probably know, the band has been in need of a new drummer since the previous drummer went AWOL... 
Luckily a new drummer has been found, although we can't reveal any details, yet.
There is however this picture that might give you a clue as to who he is...

Trader's Diary 25/7/13

By Smoking Gun

Been swamped with work and a stream of friends and relatives visiting all at the same time during the last few days, so not been updating my blog on a daily basis. A few trades were done in the mock portfolio. Here is how the portfolio stood at day end.

Disclaimer: This is a mock portfolio and all trades referred in the the context of this mock portfolio are purely hypothetical based on actual prices observed during actual trading. This mock portfolio only serves merely to demonstrate the methods in my stock picking and trading strategy and does not represent a solicitation or recommendation to buy and sell any security or financial instrument. The author and/or interested parties may have positions in the stocks mentioned. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The ideas expressed are solely my opinions. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

During this period, I added 200,000 shares of Centurion to the portfolio, while I took profit on 200,000 shares of OKH Global at 0.515 for a 14.4% gain. Overall portfolio is up 1.2% since inception, while cash uninvested still stands at nearly 60%. The portfolio shall be more reflective of the efficacy of my trading methods once the invested portion of the portfolio is closer to 80%.

Here's my rationale for the Centurion trade which took place on the 17 Jul 13.
 Looking at Centurion's M index, from a reading of 2.52 to 42.69, it jumped up to 270.72 yesterday (16 Jul 13) and carried over to 334.85 today (17 Jul 13). This was accompanied with rising prices and MFI and successfully broke its 52 Week High (BrH%). Breaking the 52 week high is normally a precursor to a continuation of the uptrend.

My rationale for selling out on OKH
My sell signal is based on the readings of the MFI. An drop in excess of 3 points will prompt me to liquidate my positions. On the circled readings on the MFI, yesterday's reading of 69.44 which was a drop of 3.5 points from the preceding day, prompted the sell yesterday. This was confirmed by weaker prices today. A drop in the MFI in excess of 3 points will indicate a significant money outflow, and as part of the trading discipline, we shall exit if this happens even at a loss (in this event, we made some money)

Tuesday, 23 July 2013

The Debasement of Major Currencies Crash & Asset Class Returns As At 30 June 2013

By Guest Blogger, Salvador Dali, Malaysia-Finance

June was a torrential month. We had people running for the escape shutes just on the likelihood of QE being tapered down in the near future. In reality, its just the usual holiday season for most finance industry people ... as usual when there are not much going on, it takes little to move things down. Then the whole world searched high and low for reasons to explain that phenomenon. Many times, its just profit taking. Because seriously, look how easy it was for markets to return to some normalcy? You tell me that what started the rout in inescapable fear and loathing, suddenly reversed course.

Emerging markets stocks and bonds took the brunt of the hit. Remember this trend, when the markets crash due to the finality of the debasement of major currencies, this is what will happen, magnified 5-10 times at least. Just look down the asset classes, every single one except cash is down. Remember this ....


The funny thing was that gold even went down. Of course in a real major correction based on the debasement of major currencies, the developed marlets bonds will TANK in a big way, followed by their stock markets as people pull funds away. They will also pull funds away from emerging markets stocks and bonds. Emerging markets bonds will be the most vulnerable - because they attracted the most inflow over the past 5 years as funds seek out better yields with "better currencies". The debasement of major currencies (USD, Euro and yen) is nothing new, there are a lot of believers, just that we do not know exactly when it will happen.

But why, what is the justification that the debasement crisis will end in tears? There is debasement just by looking at the amount of money printed by most central banks over the last 5 years alone. Technically, in the US alone, they might need only 1/10th of the amount of money running in the system. OK, that might seem scary already. Even if you try to take back half of that, you know there will be dislocation, no matter how well planned. Pumping in is fun, just like alcohol consumption in a party. The way out never is.

Two, the QE funds are largely not flowing through the real economy. Big and small banks, but mainly big banks, are benefiting enormously by taking these funds at zero and getting their 0.2%-0.4% margins leaving that in the interbank. Is it any wonder that even behemoths like Bank of America and Citigroup are making billions again - its not from lending, its not from trading, its not really from investment banking.

Already the real economy is not getting the credit they need to jump start. They can see the low rates but they cannot borrow realistically. Those who do borrow are using it for unproductive ways again, e.g. flipping houses, or carry trades. These inflate certain asset classes (stocks and REITs mainly) but doe not provide the multiplier effect down the entire economy.

When central banks sells bonds again (to soak up liquidity), the big guys holding the cash will demand for much higher interest rates = you go from zero to 3% and then 6% quite fast. Sharply higher rates will pummel all stocks and the chain reaction goes around. Only this time, the severity is pronounced because its not a one off event, investors can see the amount of liquidity to be called back. Even if central banks stopped the soaking up process midway, the confidence is gone. Confidence is one of the greatest asset in valuing assets. 

If QE did what it was supposed to do ... lend to businesses and people who need them, you would have seen a great multiplier effect of more money moving around, improved business velocity ... which would then enable the economy to better weather the turning off of QE or soaking up of liquidity later on. 

The strange thing is that you cannot just sell one currency and thats the end of it, it has to be converted into another currency. But as you can see from the last two paras, everything will collapse in a debasement correction as currencies of all sorts will collapse.

HKD will be under some strange pressure when USD falls by 20% in a week. It might finally prompt a reweighting of the HKD to a basket of currencies. The emerging markets will be very busy defending their currency, not because they are not stronger than the developed currencies but because their bonds have attracted so much foreign money that the moment they all decide to exit the bonds, it literally means that yields may double from 4%-6% to 10%-18% overnight as the ringgit, rupiah, baht will be sold down tremendously as funds repatriate. This will cause an even bigger collapse in emerging markets stocks even though they may be fundamentally superior to developed markets' stocks.

The strange part which i mentioned was that last month sell down did not see gold prices rise as that should be seen as the best alternative if you do not want to hold currencies. 

This piece of advice will be worth millions to the right person. In a debasement of major currencies correction, almost nothing is worth buying. Except hard assets, but not just any hard assets, if USD is tanking then holding a USD property does not help. Pick the right country that can ride out the storm and come out stronger and your net wealth intact.

Buy UK properties, buy Singapore properties, buy large tracts of farmland or idle land in Malaysia, Australia, NZ, buy gold certificates. Looks like many Malaysians already have a great read on the upcoming disaster, many have been ploughing headstrong into UK and SG properties. However, me thing the total exposure to all the hard assets above should be between 30%-60% of your total assets. Get closer to 60% when the storm is near. Currently it is not.

So, when will this happen? I think come next May-September, plenty of time still. There is still the possibility that this event can be further delayed: if QE stops and the markets rumbled but steadies ... however, the central banks DO NOT sell bonds i.e. no soaking up of liquidity .... then its like postponing the inevitable. It will come, if you do not soak up the liquidity the markets will correct the realignment for you. They will just lose confidence in developed markets bonds, then developed markets stocks, then assets of most things, just like you saw from the figures in the month of June 2013 only multiplied.

Once that train starts, you can see a few months of high anxiety. Bernanke should be so glad to get out of his position so that he does not need to go through that.

Tuesday, 16 July 2013

Smear Campaign against Palm Oil Industry

This article is originally published on Salvador Dali's blog Malaysia Finance Blogspot. The author, Mr Koon Yew Yin, is a well known Malaysian investor and many regard him as the Warren Buffett of Malaysia. Best known for being the one of the founders of IJM and Gamuda, Mr Koon is also a philantrophist and writes regularly on issues that is dear to him.

Fight the Smear Campaign against the Oil Palm Industry
Koon Yew Yin
A few weeks ago the sky was covered with smoke from the burning of forests in Sumatra to clear land for agriculture. Many in Malaysia and Singapore were affected by the haze.  Some observers in the west used it as an occasion to bad-mouth the oil palm oil further. In this article, I will try to share some facts of life in the oil palm industry so that Malaysians will not join the western world in their smear campaign.
Firstly, we must remember that the west had cut down their forests and trees centuries ago to develop their countries.  Malaysia and Indonesia are both new comers in the development scene and have been felling our forests for only a few decades now.  Of our tropical agricultural crops, oil palm is the most recent cash crop commodity.
Although there has been a rapid rate of exploitation, it still occupies a small proportion of our total land area.  The oil palm industry in Malaysia accounts for 15.5 per cent of total land area and only 4.5 per cent of total land area of Indonesia.  A large proportion of the oil palm plantations are also not newly felled forest but are old rubber plantations that have been converted to this more lucrative crop.
Many in the public know of my views which are critical of many developments in the country.  However, praise needs to be given when it is deserved; and our home grown oil palm industry is one which deserves all our support. This support is important in view of the sustained criticism made against the oil palm industry by lobby groups that have their origin in the west.
Why We Should Support Our Oil Palm Industry
There are many good reasons to support our oil palm industry in Malaysia and Indonesia. These are some of the most important.
1.    Firstly it is not only Felda settlers that are dependent on the crop for a livelihood. Malaysia’s annual US$25 billion (RM79.75 billion) palm oil exports support some two million jobs and livelihoods along the sprawling value chain. This means that one in every five working Malaysian is dependent for his or her livelihood on the crop.  
2.    Plantations have borne the brunt of the bad publicity. However, the small farmers are also affected. More than 40 per cent of oil palm planters in Indonesia are smallholders whilst in Malaysia they contribute to 38 per cent of the country’s palm oil output.
3.    Environmental activist groups such as World Wildlife Fund, Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace have launched many campaigns alleging that the expansion of oil palm plantations have destroyed forests, threatened endangered wildlife and robbed indigenous peoples of their land. Many of their arguments are not based on fact but are sensationalized from a small and atypical number of cases.
4.    The anti-oil palm lobby in the west includes pro-soya bean and rape-seed groups who see oil palm as a major competitor and have recruited food lobbyists to play on fears of the health hazards of palm oil consumption. . Together with environmental activists, these well-funded groups have created trade barriers to the global oil palm trade under the pretext of environmental activism.
5.    In a fair contest amongst competing vegetable oils, palm oil will win hands down. The oil palm tree is the world’s most efficient oil crop because one can harvest five tonnes of oil per hectare. This is 10 times more productive than soya bean planted in the West, including United States and five times more productive than rapeseed, Europe’s main oil crop.
6.    It is an undeniable fact that palm oil is the cheapest and most popular form of cooking oil for consumers, including many poor families in the west. Should trade barriers to benefit rapeseed farmers who are already heavily subsidised by the European Union (EU) government be successfully implemented, this will hurt consumers all over the world.
7.    Also should alternatives to oil palm be grown, more land would be needed to produce an equivalent volume of oil to replace palm oil, resulting in more deforestation and problems for Mother Earth.
8.    Oil palm smallholdings and plantations meet the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change which defines a forest as an area of 0.5 to one hectare having more than 30 per cent canopy cover and having a potential height of two to five metres. To accuse the industry in Malaysia and Indonesia of contributing to global warming is sheer nonsense. In fact oil palm trees just as with other forest species, produce oxygen for us to breathe and act to counter coal and oil emissions which are the major cause of global warming.
9.    Finally, the western environmental activists’ campaign against oil palm plantation expansion, in the name of “saving rainforests”, is a violation of international norms and Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s sovereignty.
Appeal to Malaysians
In a keynote address to over a thousand delegates at a conference organised by the Incorporated Society of Planters (ISP) in Sibu, Sarawak, recently, Datuk Amar Abdul Hamed Sepawi, Chairman of Sarawak Plantation Berhad warned,   “We’re at a crossroads. It’s time for oil palm planters to adapt to the fast-changing world of ruthless vegetable oil politics if we want to stay relevant in this market”.
I trust all Malaysians will circulate this article to all their contacts to fight against the smear campaign against our palm oil industry and eventually I hope consumers, all over the world, will not buy soyabean or rapeseed oil which is more expensive and not really superior to palm oil.

Monday, 15 July 2013

Cory Monteith of Glee! Tribute

Cory Monteith Celebrity English 
Unfortunately another wonderful actor has tragically passed away.  This week, the talented international sensation Cory Monteith of Glee was found dead on Saturday at the Vancouver  Fairmont Pacific Rim (Canada) by Hotel staff.  He was only 31.  Cory will be missed by millions of fans & friends.

This week, as a tribute I wanted to give everybody a bit of information about Cory Monteith and his career.

Cory Monteith of Glee_singing
 As an actor based out of Vancouver, he had minor roles on such television series as Stargate Atlantis and Smallville before an audition tape of him singing "Can't Fight This Feeling" helped to land him the biggest role of his career, Finn on Glee, introducing him to an international audience as a high school quarterback who is at first reluctant to join the high school singing club. In later seasons, the character had graduated but returned as a singing coach. Following his success on Glee, Monteith's film work included the movie Monte Carlo and a starring role in Sisters & Brothers.

Charity Work
Cory Monteith used his fame to help set up Vancouver’s Project Limelight.  Project Limelight is an organization that provides free theater programming and mentoring to motivated but high risk youth between the ages of 8 and 15.  Many of Cory Monteith's fans are currently donating to the non- profit organization to honor his legacy and commitment to the potential that resides in all people.
Listen to Cory talk about Project Limelight with Richard Branson.


List of TV and Film that you can see Cory work his magic!


2005Killer BashDouglas Waylan Hart
2006Bloody MaryPaul Zuckerman
2006Kraken: Tentacles of the DeepMichael
2006Deck the HallsMadison's date
2006Final Destination 3Kahill
2007HybridAaron Scates
2007White Noise: The LightScooter guy
2007GoneDavis Calder
2007The InvisibleJimmy
2007WhisperTeenage boy
2007Wannabe MacksStu
2008The Boy Next DoorJason
2011Breaking the Girl

2011Monte CarloOwen
2011Sisters & BrothersJustin Montegan
2011Glee: The 3D Concert MovieFinn Hudson
2013All the Wrong ReasonsJames Ascher
2013McCanickSimon Weeks


2004Stargate AtlantisGenii PrivateEpisode: "The Storm"
2005Young BladesMarcel Le RueEpisode: "To Heir is Human"
2005SupernaturalGaryEpisode: "Wendigo"
2005SmallvilleFrat cowboyEpisode: "Thirst"
2005Killer InstinctWindsurfer BobEpisode: "Forget Me Not"
2006WhistlerLip RingEpisode: "The Burden of Truth"
2006Stargate SG-1Young MitchellEpisode: "200"
2006Kyle XYCharlie Tanner7 episodes
2007Flash GordonIan FinleyEpisode: "Life Source"
2007KayaGunnar10 episodes
2008Fear ItselfJamesEpisode: "New Year's Day"
2009The AssistantsShane Baker2 episodes
2009–2013GleeFinn HudsonLead role; 81 episodes
Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series (shared with cast)
Teen Choice Award for Choice TV: Actor Comedy (2011)
Nominated – Teen Choice Award for Choice TV: Breakout Star Male (2009)
Nominated – People's Choice Award for Favorite TV Comedy Actor (2012)
2010The SimpsonsFlynnVoice
Episode: "Elementary School Musical"
2011The Cleveland ShowFinn HudsonVoice
Episode: "How Do You Solve a Problem Like Roberta?"
2012The Glee ProjectHimselfEpisode: "Vulnerability"
20132013 Kids' Choice AwardsHimselfPresenter

Finally here is a tribute to Cory Monteith of  Glee.

Take my TV friend,

Alex Graham
Celebrity English
Celebrity English - Alex Graham

Language Learning Section

(Note: Although it is not the most pleasant topic, 
death is a part of life.  It is a part of the human experience.)

  Listening Practice - A Tribute to Cory Monteith of  Glee.

Instructions: Listen to the video above and fill in the missing word(s).  Once you have filled in the missing word(s), write the meaning of each word. The answers are below.

A Tribute to Cory Monteith of  Glee.
He __________ of millions as Finn Hudson – the __________ quarterback turned singer in hit TV show Glee.
__________, Cory Monteith was __________, just months after voluntarily checking himself into __________ for __________.

A close friend told Cory was "healthy and in great spirits" just 48 hours before he __________ in a Vancouver __________.

Here we remember the __________ star in his most __________ Glee moments.  __________ big man. 

Now check your answers.

Answers to the Listening Practice: 
A Tribute to Cory Monteith of  Glee

 He touched the hearts of millions as Finn Hudson – the dashingly handsome quarterback turned singer in hit TV show Glee.
Tragically, Cory Monteith was found dead age 31, just months after voluntarily checking himself into rehab for substance abuse.

A close friend told Cory was "healthy and in great spirits" just 48 hours before he died in a Vancouver hotel.

Here we remember the charming star in his most memorableGlee moments.  Rest in Peace big man.

Definition of the Vocabulary Words

touched the hearts = to touch the heart(s) of someone = to affect people; to affect your emotions, especially so that you feel sad or sympathetic.

dashingly handsome =  dashingly  adverb form of dashing (adjective)  =  (for describing men) attractive in a romantic, adventurous way; attractive and impressive in a way that shows confidence. handsome =  (for describing men) good-looking.

Tragically =  tragically adverb form of tragic (adjective) = causing strong feelings of sadness usually because someone has died in a way that seems very shocking, unfair, etc.

found dead age 31 =  found = discovered. dead  =  no longer alive or living :no longer having life. age 31 =  (formal style) at the age of  31 or 31 one years old.

rehab = [noncount] informal  :  a program for helping people who have problems with drugs, alcohol, etc. — often used after ‘in’ or ‘into’. Ex: ▪ He is in rehab. ▪ She checked herself into rehab.  ‘rehab’ is a short speaking style for ‘rehabilitation program’ in this case.

substance abuse =  (noun) overindulgence in or dependence on an addictive substance, esp. alcohol or drugs.

died = past tense of  die (verb) = to stop living. 

hotel = [count] : a place that has rooms in which people can stay especially when they are traveling : a place that provides food, lodging, and other services for paying guests.

charming (adjective): very pleasing or appealing : full of charm.

memorable (adjective) : very good or interesting and worth remembering. Ex.
▪ a memorable vacation/experience ▪ It was the most memorable line of the play. ▪ She gave a memorable performance.

rest in peace =  (Latin: Requiescat in pace) is a short epitaph or idiomatic expression wishing eternal rest and peace to someone who has died. The expression typically appears on headstones, often abbreviated as "R.I.P.".


Sunday, 14 July 2013

Trader's diary 12/7/13

Disclaimer: This is a mock portfolio and all trades referred in the the context of this mock portfolio are purely hypothetical based on actual prices observed during actual trading. This mock portfolio only serves merely to demonstrate the methods in my stock picking and trading strategy and does not represent a solicitation or recommendation to buy and sell any security or financial instrument. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The ideas expressed are solely my opinions. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Added a new position today, 100,000 shares of Kreuz. No change on previous positions.

Normally, I would not buy a stock where the M Index is just 143.43.. but if you look at the previous days, the trading volume was virtually non-existent, so even at 143.43 looks like a significant pick up in activity for this counter. I also like the fact that the BrH is trending up and should test the 52 week high soon. MFI looks healthy to support a run-up.

Total cash invested is now close to 30%.

Thursday, 11 July 2013

Trader's diary 11/7/13

By Smoking Gun

Disclaimer: This is a mock portfolio and all trades referred in the the context of this mock portfolio are purely hypothetical based on actual prices observed during actual trading. This mock portfolio only serves merely to demonstrate the methods in my stock picking and trading strategy and does not represent a solicitation or recommendation to buy and sell any security or financial instrument. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The ideas expressed are solely my opinions. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

World equities rallied on 11/7/13 in the aftermath of Bernanke's comments. Dow and the S&P 500 registered new highs at the close of trading. At home, the Straits Times Index surged 1.9% earlier. Despite that, it was not really a good trading market today on the SGX as the surged was mainly concentrated on index linked stocks while most of the trading stocks remained subdued. We only introduced 200,000 shares of Kori to our trading portfolio yesterday at 4.50pm 11/7/13 at 0.41 within our rules of maximum of 10% per single stock exposure. As we are building up the portfolio, invested portion of the portfolio is only 18% whilst the uninvested cash is at 82%.

We based our decision to purchase Kori on the following criteria.
1. M over the past few days of 11.57, 156.63, 14.86 and followed today with a huge surge to 2,509.
2. Surge in M accompanied by strong price action up 7.9%
3. Decent volume in value terms of $6.4m
4. Big jump in MFI from 22.57 to 37.9

Our earlier buy Hiap Hoe had a good surge in the morning, touching a high of 0.78 before tapering off to close at 0.755. MFI showing an increasing trend which shows sustained interest while the M is still at elevated levels of 390.45 earlier today despite tapering off from the previous days 463.09. 

Markets today will get a boost from the strong showing of the US and European markets. Conditions elsewhere look supportive. Will be a good trading day today.

Wednesday, 10 July 2013

Model Portfolio - Start Date 10/7/2013

By Smoking Gun

Disclaimer: This is a mock portfolio and all trades referred in the the context of this mock portfolio are purely hypothetical based on actual prices observed during actual trading. This mock portfolio only serves merely to demonstrate the methods in my stock picking and trading strategy and does not represent a solicitation or recommendation to buy and sell any security or financial instrument. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The ideas expressed are solely my opinions. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

My Trading Journal
I started this blog to record my thoughts and ideas on trading stocks. There are many blogs and forums on Singapore equities and some of them are really informative and insightful. I don't intend to go that route with my blog due to my time commitments, although once a while, I intend write at length on certain subjects. However, readers can have an objective assessment of my methods of stock picking and trading philosophy by assessing the performance this mock trading journal. The starting position is $1m and the inception date is 9/7/13

I have only two simple trading rules for this portfolio which are as follows;
1. Maximum Exposure into any given stock at any time - 10% of portfolio
2. Minimum Stock Positions as % of Portfolio - No minimum

At 4.40 pm, 10/7/13, I bought 130,000 shares of Hiap Hoe at 0.74 for a total gross trade value of 96,200 which is within my 10% single stock exposure limit rule. Hiap Hoe fulfilled all the criteria on the system and so enforced our conviction to buy.

First thing we look for is the reading on the M Index as compared to the previous five days (bottom right hand side table). Hiap Hoe's latest M reading is at 463.10 compared to 64.61, 27.66 and 16.07 for the previous 3 days which represents a significant leap in trading activity for the stock. (100 being normal trading volume for any given stock). The next thing we look at is whether the jump in M is accompanied by a positive price action, as this implies that there is a surge of buying interest in the stock due to the bidding up of prices and volume buildup. Conversely, we ignore those high-M stocks with negative price action. In this regard, Hiap Hoe is up by 3c, so it confirms the first criteria.

To support our trading decision, we look at the other indicators to provide further validation. The MFI and BrH has to be trending up over the last five days. So for Hiap Hoe, again no problem there as well as the other indicators look very healthy with nice steady rise. We will look at the MFI for signals to sell, normally if it drops 3 points from the high watermark point, we will exit the positions. In this regard, the high watermark is 54.58 as of today. This means if the MFI drops to less than 51.58 we will exit the position even at a loss. If the MFI climbs to say 56 tomorrow, then the exit signal will be triggered when MFI is at less than 53 and so on.

I will try to update the values of the Mock Portfolio on a daily basis although I may not be able to give full commentaries due to other commitments. However, feedback is welcome and appreciated.

Singapore Market Overvalued?
I was attending an investment seminar organized by a private bank a week ago, and the key takeaways from their experts were;
1. The expected tapering of US QE has moved significantly forward to 2014 as compared to 2015
2. Bond yields and interest rates are expected to trend upwards
3. All asset classes to experience headwinds, equities will still outperform in Japan and Europe and places where monetary policy remains easy.
4. Gold prices set for rebound.
5. Singapore equity market is very richly valued as compared to peers and risk sudden outflows in capital due to several factors i.e. rise in US interest rates, China economic woes worsening etc. At 16X prospective earnings, Singapore looks fully valued

Name P/E P/B Est P/E Est P/B
HANG SENG INDEX 9.47 1.31 18.46 2.67
KARACHI 100 INDEX 9.44 1.76 17.74 1.52
Straits Times Index STI 12.95 1.41 16.54 2.22
CSI 300 INDEX 11.05 1.53 16 1.77
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 19.55 1.89 14.79 2.84
NZX 50 Gross Index 20.15 1.87 14.47 1.59
HO CHI MINH STOCK INDEX 13.62 1.76 14.17 1.34
SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH 12.21 1.69 13.56 1.75
KOSPI INDEX 26.86 1.07 13.55 2.1
TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX 22.14 1.7 13.35 2.18
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI 16.92 2.34 11.92 2.04
STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX 16.6 2.3 11.33 2.01
NIKKEI 225 26.05 1.55 9.97 1.07
NSE CNX NIFTY INDEX 16.21 2.52 9.72 1.22
JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX 17.93 2.81 9.52 1.4
PSEi - PHILIPPINE SE IDX 18.82 2.81 8 1.66
Name P/E P/B Est P/E Est P/B
CAC 40 INDEX 15.62 1.23 14.66 2.26
DAX INDEX 15 1.43 13.56 1.75
FTSE 100 INDEX 16.14 1.8 11.79 1.17
STXE 600 € Pr 18.51 1.62 11.75 1.66
S&P 500 INDEX 15.75 2.38 9.73 1.22
Source: Bloomberg

Given this challenging environment, stock picking becomes even more critical for investing/trading success.